The Reality Of Bucs WR Godwin’s Contract

Let me take you again to an extended, very long time in the past. One earlier than the large extensive receiver contract grew to become the norm of the NFL world.  A less complicated time. You already know, 5 months in the past. It was a pivotal time for the Bucs. It was a pivotal time for his or her impending free agent extensive receiver Chris Godwin.

And followers have been anxious as properly.

On the eve of free company information broke that the workforce could be utilizing its franchise tag on Godwin for the second consecutive yr. This is able to imply Godwin would price Tampa Bay $19.2 million {dollars} in opposition to the wage cap. On the time that might have meant that the annual common worth of Godwin’s contract would have made him the sixth-highest paid receiver within the league. 

This got here as a shock to many of the NFL world. Most affordable estimates had Godwin signing a long-term take care of the Bucs within the neighborhood of $16-17 million per yr.

Then over the course of 5 days Chargers extensive receiver Mike Williams and Godwin every signed almost an identical three yr, $60-million contracts. These two helped usher in a brand new period of $20+ million/yr contracts that has swept the league this offseason. Since then, eight extra receivers have signed new offers or extensions which have put them on this not-so-exclusive-anymore membership.

As well as, Brandin Cooks received slightly below that on a take care of Houston. There at the moment are 14 receivers with AAV’s of $20 million or extra. Previous to this offseason there have been simply 4.

The Hassle With Evaluating Godwin’s Contract

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

However how does Godwin’s contract examine to all the others signed this yr? Traditionally within the NFL it has been onerous to make these sorts of comparisons. That is because of the non-guaranteed nature of the contracts. In all different American skilled sports activities league contracts are absolutely assured. And thusly, you merely examine the typical annual worth of two or extra contracts to see which participant made out finest.

However within the NFL, there are a mess of things that convolute the method. Some gamers obtain extra absolutely assured cash than others. Some get higher money flows within the first three years. These components have each been used prior to now by analysts to attempt to clarify how some gamers fare in opposition to others within the contract-negotiating recreation.

A New Means To Examine Contracts

Over at Professional Soccer Focus Arjun Menon and Brad Spielberger created a mannequin which will assist with that course of going ahead with their new mannequin referred to as “Anticipated Contract Worth.” I’ll allow them to clarify what it’s as they will do it a lot better than I.

We (Arjun Menon and Brad Spielberger) needed to create a metric(s) that fastened this difficulty. Constructing off Bryce Johnston (now with the Eagles) and Nicholas Barton’s (each previously of Over The Cap) terrific work on the Anticipated Contract Worth metric, we determined to attempt to apply the identical methodologies to 2022 offseason free brokers and gamers that have been prolonged. Utilizing anticipated contract worth (ECV), we will then create different metrics, akin to anticipated APY, and p.c of contract anticipated to earn.

After constructing out anticipated contract worth, we consider this will function a strategy to actually examine contracts between gamers to see whose deal is stronger.”

How Sturdy Is Godwin’s Deal?

This in fact begs the query how robust is Godwin’s deal within the “yr of the extensive receiver mega-deal?”

Let’s begin first with Godwin’s contract. Godwin signed a three-year $60 million take care of $40 million absolutely assured. Here’s what Arjun and Brad got here up with by way of Godwin’s anticipated contract end result.

This represents the probability Godwin performs every year. Now that we have now this, we will multiply that probability by every year’s base wage to come back to the anticipated contract quantity.

Now due to Arjun we will examine this to every of the opposite massive offers signed this offseason.

Of the 13 contracts listed you possibly can see Godwin comes out with the seventh-highest “Anticipated APY” simply behind Williams. It’s because Williams is much less prone to play his third yr. Moreover, Williams has a better wage for that third yr and so his anticipated APY is greater attributable to greater money flows earlier within the contract which might be extra prone to be earned.

The Bucs must be completely happy that they received a premium expertise like Godwin at such an affordable anticipated APY. Over the previous three years on a per recreation foundation, that is the place Godwin has ranked amongst this group: third in receptions, third in yards, and sixth in touchdowns.

Trying At It From All Sides

From Godwin’s perspective he ought to really feel superb about getting such robust ensures on his deal. With an anticipated proportion of contract earned of 82.20% he ranks third on this listing behind solely A.J. Brown and Cooper Kupp. Plus, he’ll have the ability to hit the market once more earlier than he’s 30 years outdated. That can enable him to get one other crack at a giant deal.

On the Bucs’ facet, they have been capable of get Godwin at what has turned out to be a relative cut price in hindsight. Early on this deal appears like a uncommon “win-win.” And now that Bucs followers will get to see Godwin in pewter and pink for most probably one other three years, we will name it a “win-win-win.”