How Much Should The Bucs Pay Gronkowski?

He did it once more, people. Mike Florio of Professional Soccer Discuss is a grasp of his craft.

That craft nowadays appears to be throwing wild takes about your Bucs on the wall to see what number of clicks he can get. And boy is he good at it.

The person has a large following. And the Bucs are en vogue proper now. So naturally if he have been to place out scorching takes about fashionable Bucs gamers, he’s going to get eyes on him.

That appears to be the case as soon as once more the doozy from this morning.

In it, Florio speculates the Bucs and Rob Gronkowski might not have consummated a contract as a result of Tampa Bay can not meet Gronkowski’s contract calls for. What calls for are these? Florio doesn’t assert a selected quantity that the Gronkowski camp might have floated, however through the piece he does make the next private assertion.

“Regardless, he ought to be completed with taking part in for something lower than $15 million per 12 months — particularly after the receiver market has skyrocketed towards $30 million.”

Excuse me, what?

That $15 million quantity is fairly loaded.

Why? It represents the literal high of the marketplace for tight ends. The highest AAV (common annual worth) for tight ends is $15 million and is held by San Francisco’s Professional Bowler, George Kittle. His present deal is for 5 years and $75 million. So, is Gronkowski well worth the high AAV for his place group as Florio asserts? The reply is not any he isn’t.

Why Gronkowski Is Not Price $15 Million

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

There are a variety of the reason why Gronkowski isn’t a $15 million participant. First, he’s 33 years previous. Kittle is 28. Lots of good soccer occupies that five-year age hole.

However Travis Kelce is identical age as Gronk! 

Sure, he’s. And he isn’t fairly making $15 million per 12 months. Kelce sits on the second highest AAV amongst tight ends at $14.3 million.

Now that we now have established age is a think about valuation, let’s have a look at Gronk vs. Kelce. Over the past three taking part in seasons Kelce has been focused 415 occasions. This has resulted in 294 receptions for 3,770 yards and 25 touchdowns.

By comparability Gronkowski has been focused 238 occasions. His outcomes on these targets? How about 147 receptions for two,107 yards and 16 touchdowns. That’s a world of distinction. Gronkowski additionally missed seven video games in that span together with 5 this previous 12 months. Kelce has missed one.

Harm danger is an actual a part of contract valuation. I feel it’s protected to say Gronkowski just isn’t value as a lot as Kelce at this level of their careers.

Ought to The Broad Receiver Market Increase Gronk’s Worth?

However Florio makes use of the booming large receiver market as a motive why Gronkowski’s worth ought to shoot up. And it’s true that large receivers are signing greater contracts than ever earlier than. Seven of the highest AAV offers for large receivers have been inked simply this offseason.

However what Florio doesn’t let you know is that the tight finish market is already rising.  Final 12 months the High 10 tight ends in soccer by AAV averaged $11.15 million per 12 months. This 12 months that quantity has risen to $12.59 million. That’s a 13% enhance.

Final 12 months the High 10 AAV large receivers averaged $19.78 million per 12 months. This 12 months that quantity has risen to $23.49 million. That’s a rise of 19%. Not that far off. However it’s a distinction. Do tight ends produce like large receivers?

The reply to that query is not any.

Darnell Mooney and Jaylen Waddle tied for the Tenth most targets amongst large receivers final 12 months with 140 a bit.  The Tenth most focused tight finish was Noah Fant with 90. The disparity is obvious. However Florio brings up an fascinating level. And it’s a level many gifted tight ends have been making an attempt to make for years, courting again to Jimmy Graham’s days in New Orleans. Take away the positional designations and worth them as weapons.

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

Okay, let’s apply that to Gronkowski. Final 12 months Gronk was focused 88 occasions. These 88 targets got here in an injury-shortened season, however I feel that pretty bakes in his age and harm danger.

Who’re some large receivers who had related targets and how much contracts are they signing? A.J. Inexperienced simply signed a brand new contract with Arizona after 92 targets final 12 months. His AAV on that deal is $3.5 million. Russell Gage had 94 targets and signed a $10 million AAV take care of the Bucs. Jarvis Landry had 87 targets final 12 months and signed a brand new take care of the Saints for an AAV of $6 million. And eventually, Tim Patrick had 85 targets and received an $11.3 million AAV with the Broncos.

These 4 gamers averaged 89.5 targets, 56.25 catches, 730.5 yards, and three.5 touchdowns. Gronkowski’s line on his 89 targets? 55 catches, 802 yards, and 6 scores. So, it’s truthful to offer him a bump on their AAV’s. However that bump is off of a median of $7.7 million AAV. What vary does that put Gronk into? The $8-10 million/12 months he has been in over the previous two years.

Trying Past The Field Rating

We’ve got established that tight ends aren’t value the identical amount of cash as large receivers from a manufacturing standpoint. We’ve got established that valuing Gronk as a weapon much like receivers nonetheless reveals that his worth is much like what he has been paid over the previous couple of years. However let’s actually hammer this level dwelling.

Let’s have a look at it from a grading standpoint. Our greatest supply of public info from a grading standpoint is Professional Soccer Focus. In response to PFF, Gronkowski was the fourth-best receiving tight finish final 12 months. In 2020 he was Sixteenth-best. Common the 2 and also you get Tenth-best. It’s a crude valuation, however it’s not far off actuality. The Tenth-highest paid tight finish within the league has an AAV of $10.55 million.

Slice it any manner you need, and Florio is totally off-base along with his $15 million quantity. Gronkowski is an excellent tight finish who’s on the flawed aspect of 30 with harm considerations.

You understand how a lot that’s value within the NFL in the present day? It’s value about $8-11 million {dollars} per 12 months which is true consistent with what the Bucs have paid him. As for whether or not the staff low-balling him is the explanation he hasn’t returned but, Scott Reynolds’ debunks that fantasy as effectively.

Possibly we should always revive the present “Mythbusters” and dedicate it to eviscerating each horrible Bucs take Florio has. I’m throwing my hat in for episode one.