FPI predictions for the biggest games of NFL Week 14

Once again, Prime-time Parlay is all about the best games: Thursday, Sunday and Monday’s prime-time games and the top 1 p.m. ET and 4 p.m. ET Sunday matchups. Straight-up picks, but you have to hit all seven. Then we calculate how much you would earn for the parlay, using Westgate’s money lines.

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay tells you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you’ll be watching. (All NFL point spreads and money lines can be found here).

Total payout for Week 14 Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in seven games): $656.77 on $100 wager


Money line: Titans -210
FPI projection: Titans win by 4.6 points

FPI thinks the Jags are worse off with Cody Kessler starting at quarterback than they were with Blake Bortles. With Kessler, we expect them to be the fifth-worst offense going forward. — Seth Walder

Money line: Chiefs -300
FPI projection: Chiefs win by 9.1 points

An example of why offense is more important than defense. The Chiefs have the second-best offense, and the Ravens have the second-best defense. However, the Chiefs offense’s advantage over an average team is more than double the margin of the Ravens defense’s advantage. — Seth Walder

Money line: Cowboys -185
FPI projection: Cowboys win by 5.9 points

The Eagles are on short rest, and the Cowboys are on long rest. FPI takes that differential into account, and it’s part of the reason why it’s this confident about Dallas. — Seth Walder

Money line: Rams -170
FPI projection: Rams win by 2.2 points

Aaron Donald beats his blocker at a slightly higher rate within 2 seconds of the snap (24 percent) than Khalil Mack does in 2.5 seconds (23 percent), per ESPN pass-rush metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats. The Bears’ defense is better overall, but it’s not nearly enough to overcome a superior Rams offense. — Seth Walder

Money line: Seahawks -175
FPI projection: Seahawks win by 5.4 points

Kirk Cousins is hindered by the fifth-worst pass-blocking unit in front of him, per PBWR. The Vikings have the best defense in football, FPI thinks, but combined with their offensive weakness, that’s not enough to overcome Seattle’s eighth-best offense coupled with an average defense. — Seth Walder

Final Parlay: Titans, Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams, Seahawks

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.

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