I wish to take you again in time to a bit over three months in the past. It was an easier time, the place guys who had been paid to catch the ball and guys who had been paid to cease guys from catching the ball may ink comparable offers.
Again then Bucs followers had been anxiously awaiting information of a Bucs extension with star large receiver Chris Godwin. Godwin coming off of a season the place he caught 98 passes for 1,103 yards and 5 touchdowns earlier than tearing his ACL late within the season.
The belief at that time limit amongst many of the soccer world was that Godwin and the Bucs would come to phrases on a take care of an common annual worth someplace within the neighborhood of $17.5 million. That might have made Godwin the seventh-highest paid large receiver within the NFL.
Then on March 6 some very stunning information broke. The Bucs had been going to make use of their franchise tag on the younger star for the second consecutive yr. This meant Godwin would obtain a one-year, $19.2 million contract. It additionally gave the staff further time to barter solely with Godwin on a long-term deal.
Then new got here out that the Chargers and receiver Mike Williams had agreed to a three-year $60 million contract. That deal made tied Williams with Amari Cooper for the fourth-highest AAV amongst large receivers in soccer. This had large implications for the Bucs and Godwin.
Williams was not seen as fairly the whole receiver Godwin was and his counting stats paled compared as effectively. Godwin and Williams shared the identical agent as effectively. Shortly thereafter information broke of Godwin and the Bucs reaching an virtually an identical deal to the Williams contract.
Now let’s fast-forward again to current day. Godwin’s $20 million AAV has gone from High 5 contract amongst large receivers to virtually out of the High 10. 5 receivers have signed contract extensions that enhance their AAV above the $20 million threshold since Godwin’s deal turned official. And searching on the high quality of these receivers, it turns into obvious that Godwin’s deal is wanting increasingly like a discount with every new signing/restructure/extension.
Now any listing of “the perfect large receivers in soccer” tends to finish up in a shouting argument the place all sides cherry-picks stats that assist construct their case. And in contrast to in baseball, there isn’t an all-encompassing WAR (wins above substitute) metric publicly accessible that may assist set up worth on this debate. So admittedly that is an incomplete case. However with that stated utilizing some publicly accessible metrics it turns into simple to see that the Bucs truly made out effectively on the Godwin deal.
Let’s begin with a private favourite of mine. Whereas PFF grades aren’t good, they’re the perfect publicly accessible play-by-play evaluations of gamers. The place does Godwin rank on this metric? Final yr Godwin’s 81.3 PFF grade ranked eleventh within the NFL. Screening out receivers who’re nonetheless taking part in on rookie offers and he strikes as much as fifth. The ninth-highest AAV on the fifth-highest grade is sweet worth relating to NFL contracts.
Wanting past the grades and you’ll see Godwin frequently appears favorable on a value-perspective. yards per route run, which is an effective composite for a way typically a receiver will get open to draw a throw from their quarterback and what they do with that throw, Godwin once more ranks favorably.
I used a minimal of 75 targets and once more screened out gamers nonetheless on rookie offers. Godwin ranks tied for sixth (with Mike Williams!). The Bucs know Godwin’s worth. And even if his contract exceeded anticipated worth amongst most on the outset of free company it’s obvious that they nonetheless bought good worth simply 4 quick months later.
Mainly, any method you slice it, that Godwin deal on reflection is wanting like a steal for the Bucs.
And don’t get me began on Mike Evans …