2019 Valspar Championship odds: Surprising picks from model that nailed four golf majors

The PGA schedule continues this week with a star-studded field at the 2019 Valspar Championship, which tees off Thursday. Many of the world’s top golfers will compete at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Fla. this week in hopes of being crowned champion. World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is the Vegas favorite at 11-2, followed closely by Jon Rahm and Jason Day at 10-1 in the latest 2019 Valspar Championship odds. Before locking in any 2019 Valspar Championship picks of your own or entering any DFS tournament on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, be sure to consult the PGA predictions and projected leaderboard from the team at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the last eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods’ deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the 2019 Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it nailed Bryson DeChambeau’s (9-1) seven-shot victory at the 2019 Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the 2019 Valspar Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Paul Casey, the defending champion of this event, fails to repeat and doesn’t even crack the top five.

Casey fired a six-under final round at last year’s Valspar Championship to hold off Patrick Reed and Tiger Woods. Thus far this season, he has racked up two top-10 finishes. And although he has 14 international victories, Casey has only finished on top of the leaderboard in two PGA tournaments. Plus, Casey has missed the cut in two of his last five starts on the PGA Tour. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field.

Another surprise: Bubba Watson, a 40-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

The two-time Masters champion has finished 17th or better in three of his last five starts. Watson is a long-ball hitter who averages over 314 yards per drive, which ranks second on the PGA Tour. His ability to hit the ball deep into the fairway allows him to use his short irons to approach the green, which bodes well for him at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course. He can climb the 2019 Valspar Championship leaderboard in a hurry and should be squarely on your radar.

Also, the model says five additional golfers with Valspar odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Valspar Championship? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2019 Valspar Championship odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full Valspar Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.

Dustin Johnson 11-2
Jason Day 10-1
Jon Rahm 10-1
Sergio Garcia 16-1
Paul Casey 20-1
Patrick Reed 20-1
Webb Simpson 20-1
Gary Woodland 25-1
Jim Furyk 33-1
Keegan Bradley 33-1
Lucas Glover 33-1
Henrik Stenson 35-1
Bubba Watson 40-1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 40-1
Kevin Kisner 40-1

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