2019 NFL Playoffs Odds: Patriots surprising underdogs to Chiefs in AFC Championship Game

The AFC Championship Game is set and it is a doozy: Chiefs vs. Patriots is a monster any way you slice it, thanks to the fireworks we saw when the two teams met up in the regular season. That game was a shootout, a wild 43-40 Patriots victory over Kansas City. Despite the loss, the Chiefs ultimately secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, forcing New England to travel for the AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City needs it. The Patriots are terrifying. But the home-field advantage, coupled with how the Chiefs played on Saturday afternoon in a throttling of the Colts, has made them favorites against the Patriots in this game, which you can watch on CBS (6:40 p.m. ET next Sunday) or on CBS All Access or on fuboTV, try it for free.

All lines via the Westgate.

Patriots at Chiefs (-3), O/U 59

Yes, that’s right. The Patriots are underdogs. Despite a dominant performance against the Chargers on Sunday, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady get to deliver the “no one believed in us” card one more time, with Vegas giving them three points on the road in the AFC Championship Game.

This is just the seventh time ever the Patriots have been a full, outright underdog in the playoffs. 

2018

@ KC (AFC CG)

+3

TBD

TBD

2013

@ DEN (AFC CG)

+5

26-16 (L)

No

2006

@ IND (AFC CG)

+3

38-34 (L)

No

2006

@ SD (Div.)

+5

24-21 (W)

Yes

2005

@ DEN (Div.)

+3

27-13 (L)

No

2002

STL (Super Bowl)

+14

20-17 (W)

Yes

2002

@ PIT (AFC CG)

+10

24-17 (W)

Yes

As you can see, the Patriots have been pretty good as an underdog in the NFL playoffs under Belichick. They’re just 3-3 straight up and against the spread but the wins were some massive ones. But it’s also worth noting they are really only 1-3 as a ‘dog in the playoffs since their initial Super Bowl win, when they were huge underdogs.

In those games, the have only won once on the road as a ‘dog, when they beat the Chargers (surprise!) on a game they easily could have lost, had the Chargers just not fumbled an interception from Tom Brady.

For the Chiefs, you do NOT like the fact that Brady and Belichick and the Patriots are hearing no one believes they can win. 

The Patriots, winners of FIVE SUPER BOWLS, are being given the “no one believes in us” treatment. It’s pretty wild. But the Chiefs played them tough on the road in the regular season and Andy Reid has a history of giving the Patriots everything they can handle from a defensive perspective.

It’s hard to imagine Reid and Bob Sutton being out-coached the way that Anthony Lynn and Gus Bradley and Ken Whisenhunt were against Belichick and Josh McDaniels. The Chiefs defense also showed a LOT of life against the Colts, although clearly Brady and the Patriots present a bigger challenge.

New England got physical down the stretch of the regular season in terms of trying to establish the run game. And it showed on Sunday against Los Angeles, as the Patriots dominated Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Co. The Chiefs are absolutely vulnerable against the run and have been all year long. 

This is a fascinating matchup between two great coaches and two exciting teams. Expect some fireworks.

Rams vs. TBD

The Rams dominated the Cowboys on Saturday night in the Divisional Round and now wait to see who will win between the Eagles and Saints (you can follow all that action here in our live blog)

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